NGI’s Hub & Flow

What’s the Winter Outlook for Natural Gas Prices?

Dive into the balance of winter price forecast as NGI’s Kevin Dobbs, senior markets editor, interviews Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales. The two discuss the winter ahead in natural gas markets and explore the potential price catalysts. 

Blair covers the strengthening production and stout storage situation, as well as domestic weather in LNG demand. He also addresses potential wild cards for 2025, including the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex and the incoming Trump administration’s plans for steep new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.

An Investor's Perspective on How Natural Gas Will Fare Against Competing Energy Options Over the Coming Decade

Natural gas demand continues to defy forecasts calling for renewables to halt the fuel's growth in the Lower 48. That’s no surprise to one clean energy investor, Prithvi Ventures’ Rakesh Radhakrishnan, who spoke with NGI’s senior markets editor Chris Newman about how lifecycle costs and other factors would continue to play a huge role in decision making for power resources.

$66 Billion-Plus Question: How Will U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Trading Evolve When the Sheinbaum Administration Meets (Another) Trump Presidency?

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with about 75% of the country’s natural gas originating from the Lower 48 states. Cross-border energy trade in 2023 reached $66.5 billion, and imports of U.S. natural gas have increased for years as Mexico’s domestic production has decreased. 

With Mexico President Sheinbaum’s recent inauguration, however, the role of state-owned energy companies has been put in question. Now, with former President Trump’s re-election, NGI’s Andrew Baker, senior editor, sits down with Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, to discuss how the cross-border energy trade may evolve. Baker and Lenton dive into the implications for Mexico’s export projects should Trump reverse the Biden administration’s LNG permit pause, as well as the outlook for natural gas demand in both Mexico and the United States as nearshoring and power generation needs evolve.

Pipelines on Water: Why Have LNG Freight Rates Plunged, and When Will They Come Up for Air?

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations. 

Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.

Unpacking the Election: What's at Stake for U.S. LNG

NGI LNG editors Jamison Cocklin and Jacob Dick discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector. They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump's tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. exports.

The Gulf Coast Is Leading the Race to Trap and Store Emissions from Natural Gas and Oil as Supermajors Bankroll Mega Projects

An "impressive" 500 million tons/year of capacity for carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects in the United States are on the drawing board, designed to trap emissions from natural gas and oil projects. Those ambitions, though, have been tempered by uncertainties that include permitting challenges and public opposition. NGI's Carolyn Davis, managing editor of news, discussed the status of the domestic CCUS sector with Enverus Intelligence Research's CCUS expert Graham Bain, who leads the subsurface group for the energy transition team. The supermajors – including ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., Equinor SA and TotalEnergies SE – are bankrolling several big projects, mostly in Louisiana and Texas. As Bain explained, if all the U.S. projects now in the queue were to be sanctioned, it would require an overall investment of $73 billion, with nearly one-half poured into carbon technologies and nearly one-third into carbon dioxide pipelines. The challenges are big, but the opportunities are too, he explains.

Natural Gas Advisor Andy Huenefeld’s Outlook for Winter Prices, Supply and Demand

NGI senior markets editor Jodi Shafto interviews Andy Huenefeld, managing partner at Pinebrook Energy Advisors and contributor to The Energy Buyers Guide report. Huenefeld discusses key factors for the Lower 48 winter heating season that begins on Nov. 1.

What is Claudia Sheinbaum's Natural Gas and Energy Plan? A Look Ahead to the Next Six Years in Mexico

NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, sits down with one of the leading voices in Mexico's energy sector and the former head of Comisión Reguladora de Energía, Guillermo García Alcocer. The two discuss what could be on the horizon as Claudia Sheinbaum takes the presidential office in Mexico on Oct. 1, including potential shifts in Mexico’s energy regulatory bodies. In addition, with the Sheinbaum administration’s plans for transitioning Mexico’s electric generation mix coming to a head with rising energy demand, García Alcocer explains what could be required of both domestic natural gas supplies as well as U.S. imports. How could Mexico’s electricity, exploration and production, and LNG sectors be impacted by nearshoring? How could Mexico’s relationship with the United States be impacted as the two work to build their economies?

Could Lower 48 E&Ps Break Out of Maintenance Mode in 2025? Plus the Latest Update on Natural Gas Demand for Data Centers

With natural gas prices having hovered around $2/MMBtu through much of 2024, NGI’s Pat Rau, senior vice president for Research & Analysis, delves into what may happen with producer activity moving into next year. Publicly traded producers have been on a tight leash the last five years in terms of production growth, he notes. With new LNG export capacity around the corner, however, publicly traded Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms may push annual gas production above 5% year/year growth in 2025. Rau highlights other key developments at the end of 2024, particularly for Permian Basin E&Ps. 

Meanwhile, as discussions on artificial intelligence-driven data centers turned the tide on estimates for peak natural gas-fired generation earlier this year, Rau covers the latest prognostications for the emerging demand source.

What Lies Ahead: Why Project Delays, Regulatory Hurdles May Not Hamper U.S. LNG Development With Baker Botts’ Jason Benn

From rising costs, construction delays and an increasing number of regulatory hurdles, U.S. LNG projects have seen a bevy of challenges this year, but how impactful really are the new obstacles? Baker Botts' Jason Bennett, department chair of global projects and co-chair of energy, discusses the near-term global natural gas market dynamics and domestic policies shaping the development of U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity with NGI's Senior LNG Editor Jacob Dick. 

 

Despite rising complications, there is still strong demand for LNG, according to Bennett. One way or another, buyers will seek to fill LNG demand – and the U.S. natural gas market remains a strong supplier.