NGI’s Hub & Flow

Mind the Gap: Widening Natural Gas Storage Deficits Create Urgent Summer Challenge

After back-to-back warm winters, this year’s brutally cold showing has rapidly depleted Lower 48 natural gas inventories, flipping them from surplus to deficit and creating a challenging outlook for the upcoming injection season.

With storage now sitting below five-year averages and record LNG exports consuming more supply, the market faces a steeper climb to rebuild stocks amid caution by producers to bring on more supply. A hot summer could siphon gas away from injections to make the task harder.

NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, and senior markets editor Chris Newman examine the market’s dramatic shift from surplus to deficit, producers’ restraint despite higher prices, and the impact of structural LNG demand growth on domestic markets. They also look ahead to how the evolving market fundamentals could shape gas prices through summer and into winter 2025/26.

How Will the Trump Administration Impact the Global Natural Gas Market? A Deep Dive With Ed Crooks

NGI’s Christopher Lenton, managing editor for Mexico speaks to Wood Mackenzie vice chair for the Americas Ed Crooks on the swirl of executive orders signed by President Trump and how they are impacting natural gas fundamentals. Crooks delves into the outlook for the North American natural gas market and the impacts from tariffs, both those deemed certain and levies yet unknown. 

 

The discussion also covers oncoming LNG supply, and U.S. trade relations with Canada and Mexico, coal-to-gas switching, the recent slowing trend of an energy transition to renewables and how changing rules are being felt in the natural gas market. Crooks explains whether the United States is experiencing an “energy emergency” – or if it is about to be as artificial intelligence comes online.

Cracking the Case: How Experts Are Measuring Litigation Risk for LNG Projects

After a year of regulatory slowdowns for LNG projects, the Trump administration has come in with agency shakeups, policy changes and executive orders. What does it mean for U.S. LNG project development and future natural gas demand? NGI’s senior LNG editor Jacob Dick interviews Arbo’s Tom Sharp, director of permitting intelligence, about what is happening on the regulatory front and why litigation risk still looms large for some LNG export projects.

Will Natural Gas Supply Rise for Trump’s ‘Energy Emergency?’ Jury Still in Session

Despite talk of an energy emergency and regulations that have impeded resource development, U.S. producers have been pumping out more natural gas than ever. However, production levels have shifted widely in recent years, sinking between 2023 and 2024 and now rising again. What will 2025 bring for U.S. natural gas supply? NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, and senior markets editor Jodi Shafto delve into the production situation. They discuss recent production trends and the driving forces behind them, what may lie ahead for some of the biggest production basins and the impacts to natural gas prices amid continued capital discipline and drilling efficiencies.

Flooding the Zone: Can Trump's Executive Orders Jumpstart Stalled U.S. LNG Projects?

Get up to date on the implications of President Trump’s wave of executive orders (EO), including one to restart approvals of LNG export projects, with NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing LNG editor, and Jacob Dick, senior LNG editor. 

The two break down a list of projects that could ultimately move forward as a result of the EO. They also review the challenges that remain for LNG projects working to reach a final investment decision. The discussion also examines how a study released by the Biden administration has slowed down President Trump's efforts to fast-track projects and how the new administration is addressing it.

How Are Natural Gas Markets Faring in the Kick-Off to 2025? Storage Shrinking, Demand Surging & Prices Elevated

As chilly winter weather took hold of the Lower 48 to start 2025, natural gas cash prices held in a volatile pattern, but they were still elevated compared with winter 2023/24. NGI senior markets editors Andrew Baker and Kevin Dobbs delve into the supply situation – from shrinking storage surpluses to wellhead freeze-offs – and how new LNG demand is factoring into the equation. Plus, as a new presidential administration takes the helm, Baker and Dobbs preview what could be in store for North American natural gas markets if tariffs become law of the land.

What’s the Winter Outlook for Natural Gas Prices?

Dive into the balance of winter price forecast as NGI’s Kevin Dobbs, senior markets editor, interviews Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales. The two discuss the winter ahead in natural gas markets and explore the potential price catalysts. 

Blair covers the strengthening production and stout storage situation, as well as domestic weather in LNG demand. He also addresses potential wild cards for 2025, including the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex and the incoming Trump administration’s plans for steep new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.

An Investor's Perspective on How Natural Gas Will Fare Against Competing Energy Options Over the Coming Decade

Natural gas demand continues to defy forecasts calling for renewables to halt the fuel's growth in the Lower 48. That’s no surprise to one clean energy investor, Prithvi Ventures’ Rakesh Radhakrishnan, who spoke with NGI’s senior markets editor Chris Newman about how lifecycle costs and other factors would continue to play a huge role in decision making for power resources.

$66 Billion-Plus Question: How Will U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Trading Evolve When the Sheinbaum Administration Meets (Another) Trump Presidency?

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with about 75% of the country’s natural gas originating from the Lower 48 states. Cross-border energy trade in 2023 reached $66.5 billion, and imports of U.S. natural gas have increased for years as Mexico’s domestic production has decreased. 

With Mexico President Sheinbaum’s recent inauguration, however, the role of state-owned energy companies has been put in question. Now, with former President Trump’s re-election, NGI’s Andrew Baker, senior editor, sits down with Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, to discuss how the cross-border energy trade may evolve. Baker and Lenton dive into the implications for Mexico’s export projects should Trump reverse the Biden administration’s LNG permit pause, as well as the outlook for natural gas demand in both Mexico and the United States as nearshoring and power generation needs evolve.

Pipelines on Water: Why Have LNG Freight Rates Plunged, and When Will They Come Up for Air?

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations. 

Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.